Local Senedd constituency could change - again

The new Senedd constituency covering Newtown and Welshpool could be redrawn before the next election after a fresh review of electoral boundaries was launched.

Gwynedd Maldwyn was only used for the first time at May's Senedd election and covers a huge area stretching from north Powys into Gwynedd.

Its creation proved controversial, with concerns raised during the previous boundary review about the geographical size of the constituency and the links between communities at opposite ends of it.

Now Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru has confirmed all 16 Senedd constituencies will be reviewed again ahead of the 2030 election.

For Newtown, Welshpool and the wider Montgomeryshire area, the Commission will have more freedom this time to decide where the boundaries should go.

The previous review required Wales's 32 Westminster constituencies to be paired together to create 16 new Senedd constituencies.

That resulted in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr being joined with Dwyfor Meirionnydd to create Gwynedd Maldwyn.

The new review will not have to follow Westminster boundaries.

Instead, each constituency must have a number of electors within 10 per cent of the average for Wales.

The Commission can also take account of "special geographic considerations such as size, shape and accessibility of a constituency", as well as council boundaries and local ties. 

That is likely to be particularly relevant to Gwynedd Maldwyn because of its geographical size, although there are currently no proposals on the table and it is too early to say whether Newtown and Welshpool will ultimately find themselves in a different constituency.

The Commission can consider culture, history, socio-economic links and the Welsh language when deciding whether communities have local ties.

It says it will try to respect council boundaries where possible and has also adopted a policy of not splitting individual communities "unless there is no other available solution". 

But there is another important restriction which could limit how much Gwynedd Maldwyn changes.

The Commission is legally required to minimise disruption.

Its guide says: "In any event the Commission must seek to minimise the amount of change and have regard to the inconveniences caused by making changes." 

It means the launch of the review does not automatically mean Gwynedd Maldwyn will be broken up.

The Commission says it will look at different options across the whole of Wales before deciding what to propose.

Its guide states: "The Commission will not use a single, predetermined geographic starting point for the development of its proposals. Instead, a wide range of options will be considered." 

The number of constituencies will remain at 16 and each will continue to elect six Members of the Senedd, maintaining the 96-member Senedd introduced at this year's election. 

Residents should get their first indication of what the review could mean for Newtown and Welshpool when the initial boundaries are published in early 2027.

There will then be an eight-week public consultation.

The responses will be published before a second six-week consultation, allowing people to support or challenge the arguments put forward by others.

The Commission will also hold between two and five public hearings across Wales. 

Chief Executive Shereen Williams said the new rules would inevitably result in some changes.

She said: "The move from pairing parliamentary constituencies to using an electoral quota does mean that some changes will be necessary at this review, but it also gives us an opportunity to respond with greater flexibility to the public's views, while ensuring that we minimise changes wherever we can."

She added: "Whenever the Commission holds a review, the public's feedback, especially on their local area, is vital to making sure our determinations are the strongest possible."

Any revised proposals will face another four-week consultation.

Final boundaries must be submitted to Welsh Ministers before December 1, 2028 and will be used at the 2030 Senedd election. 

The Commission will also review the names of all 16 constituencies, meaning the Gwynedd Maldwyn name could change even if much of its existing boundary remains.